# PRE-ANALYSIS GATE (Internal Reasoning)
## Edge Calculator Analysis
– **best_market**: under_25 (edge: 0.0659 = 6.59%)
– **under_25**: 0.0659 (6.59% edge) ✓ PASSES threshold (>= 0.05)
– **under_35**: 0.0526 (5.26% edge)
– **draw_no_bet_home**: 0.0157 (1.57% edge)
– All other markets: NEGATIVE edge
## League Context
– **MLS** = TIER B (summer league, offensive structure, avg 3.1 goals)
– MLS WARNING: avoid defensive markets (BTTS No only 38.7%, CS Home only 26.7%)
– **Under 2.5 EXCEPTION** for offensive leagues applies here
## Priority Market Check: Over 2.5 Goals
– Odds: 1.67 ✓ (>= 1.75? NO — FAILS)
– edge_calculator.over_25: -0.1298 (NEGATIVE) — FORBIDDEN
– RESULT: **Priority market REJECTED** — proceed to full scan
## Market Scan (Order: Home Win → Under 2.5 → BTTS No → Draw → others)
### 1. HOME WIN
– Odds: 1.50 — FAILS (< 1.75)
- Asian Handicap -0.5 substitute: 1.52 — FAILS (< 1.75)
- edge_calculator.home_win: -0.0427 (NEGATIVE)
- **REJECTED**
### 2. UNDER 2.5 GOALS ✓ MANDATORY EVALUATION
- **Odds**: 2.15 ✓ (>= 1.90)
– **edge_calculator.under_25**: 0.0659 (6.59%) ✓ STRONG
– **Seasonal data**:
– Home goals_for: 2.1, goals_against: 1.0
– Away goals_for: 0.5, goals_against: 1.5
– Expected total: ~2.6 goals
– **Last5 form**:
– Home over25_last5: 4/5 (CONTRADICTION)
– Away over25_last5: 3/5
– Home avg_goals_for_last5: 2.0 (seasonal 2.1 — no 0.5+ diff)
– Away avg_goals_for_last5: 1.2 (seasonal 0.5 — +0.7 diff, USE LAST5)
– **H2H**: Under 2.5 = 5/5 ✓✓✓ PERFECT RECORD
– **Poisson**: over_25 probability NOT provided, but goal probabilities show Home 1.8 + Away 0.75 = 2.55 total
– **Injuries**: P. Yazbek (home midfielder) + S. Alzate (away midfielder) + E. Latte Lath (away) = 2+ attackers missing ✓
– **MLS Under 2.5 Exception Check**:
– edge_calculator.under_25 >= 0.15? NO (0.0659)
– Poisson over_25 < 0.40? Cannot verify (data not provided)
- Key striker(s) missing? YES (Latte Lath away)
- Away goals_for_avg <= 0.9? YES (0.5 seasonal)
- H2H under25 >= 3/5? YES (5/5)
– **EXCEPTION CONDITIONS MET** (2 of 3 required)
**UNDER 2.5 EDGE SCORE CALCULATION**:
– Base: +3 (H2H 5/5 perfect + seasonal away 0.5 goals_for)
– +2 (odds 2.15 in optimal range 1.90-2.15)
– +1 (injury impact: 2+ attackers missing)
– +1 (away goals_for 0.5 << 0.9 threshold)
- -1 (last5 home over25 4/5 contradicts)
- **TOTAL: 6/10**
**VALUE EDGE**: 6.59% ✓ (>> 3% threshold)
**CONFIDENCE GATE**:
– 3/4 filters: H2H ✓, Seasonal ✓, Odds ✓, Last5 ✗ (HOME contradicts) = **3/4 ✓**
– Edge Score: 6 ✓
– Value edge: 6.59% ✓
– Odds: 2.15 ✓
– League: TIER B ✓
– Last5 contradiction forces **MAX MEDIUM**
### 3. BTTS NO
– MLS is on OFFENSIVE LEAGUE WARNING — BTTS No only 38.7%
– BTTS No NOT on whitelist (Argentina, Copa Lib, Conference, Serie A, Primeira)
– **PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN in MLS**
### 4. DRAW
– Odds: 4.50 (> 3.50 max for Draw)
– MLS is on Draw whitelist
– H2H draws: 2/5 ✓
– edge_calculator: not provided for Draw
– **REJECTED** (odds too high)
### 5. BTTS YES
– Odds: 1.80 ✓
– edge_calculator.btts: -0.1156 (NEGATIVE) — FORBIDDEN
– **REJECTED**
### 6. AWAY OVER 1.5 / AWAY OVER 2.5
– Away Over 1.5: odds 4.00, edge -0.077 (NEGATIVE)
– Away Over 2.5: odds 13.00 (>> 2.50 max)
– **REJECTED**
### 7. ALL OTHER MARKETS
– Over 1.5: odds 1.20 (< 1.75)
- Over 3.5: PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN
- Second Half markets: odds available but SH Over 2.5 BANNED, SH Over 1.5 BANNED
- Home Over 1.5: odds 1.53 (< 1.75), edge -0.1166
- Asian markets: all < 1.75 or negative edge
- **ALL REJECTED**
## FINAL DECISION
Under 2.5 Goals is the ONLY viable market:
- Passes all hard filters
- 6.59% value edge (strong)
- Edge Score 6/10 (moderate-strong)
- Confidence: MEDIUM (last5 home contradiction prevents HIGH)
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