# PRE-ANALYSIS GATE — INTERNAL REASONING
## Edge Calculator Analysis
– best_market: “draw_no_bet_home” with edge 0.1478 (14.78%)
– draw_no_bet_home odds: 2.1 (valid, >= 1.75)
– home_win edge: 0.0427 (4.27%), odds 3.0 (valid)
– under_25 edge: 0.0205 (2.05%), odds 2.35 (valid but edge below 3% threshold)
– btts edge: -0.0807 (NEGATIVE — FORBIDDEN)
– over_25 edge: -0.0829 (NEGATIVE — FORBIDDEN)
– away_win edge: -0.0785 (NEGATIVE — Away Win also PERMANENTLY BANNED)
## League Context
MLS = TIER B league (summer league, offensive structure, avg 3.1 goals)
– BTTS No and Clean Sheet Home FORBIDDEN in MLS (offensive league)
– Under markets restricted in MLS — require strong defensive signals
## Market-by-Market Scan
### 1. Draw No Bet Home (best_market from calculator)
– Odds: 2.1 ✓
– Edge: 14.78% ✓✓ (exceptional)
– Equivalent to Asian Handicap +0.5 for home team
– Poisson home 47% vs away 53% (slight away lean but edge compensates)
– H2H: 2 home wins, 1 away win, 2 draws in last 5
– Home form: DWLWD (inconsistent but 2 wins in last 5)
– Defense comparison: Home 65% vs Away 35% (home stronger defensively)
– Missing players: Both teams missing 2-3 key players (balanced impact)
– Edge Score: +3 (statistical edge) +2 (odds optimal range) +1 (Tier B) +1 (defensive edge) = 7
### 2. Home Win
– Odds: 3.0 ✓
– Edge: 4.27% ✓
– Poisson home_win: 47% (below 60% threshold — FORBIDDEN by RESULT BETS hard filter)
– BLOCKED by hard filter
### 3. BTTS Yes (priority market)
– Odds: 1.5 (BELOW 1.75 — FORBIDDEN)
– Edge: -8.07% (NEGATIVE)
– BLOCKED
### 4. Over 2.5 Goals
– Odds: 1.57 (BELOW 1.75 — FORBIDDEN)
– Edge: -8.29% (NEGATIVE)
– BLOCKED
### 5. Under 2.5 Goals
– Odds: 2.35 ✓
– Edge: 2.05% (BELOW 3% threshold for Tier B — MARGINAL)
– edge_calculator.under_25 = 0.0205 (below 0.05 minimum — FORBIDDEN by PRE-SKIP CHECK)
– BLOCKED
### 6. Away Over 1.5 Goals
– Odds: 1.83 ✓
– Edge: -12.14% (NEGATIVE)
– BLOCKED
### 7. Home Over 1.5 Goals
– Odds: 2.1 ✓
– Edge: -5.12% (NEGATIVE)
– BLOCKED
### 8. Asian Handicap Home -0.5
– Odds: 3.0 ✓
– Edge: 4.27% ✓
– Same calculation as Home Win
– Poisson home_win 47% (below 60% — FORBIDDEN by RESULT BETS filter)
– BLOCKED
### 9. Asian Handicap Away +0.5
– Odds: 2.15 ✓
– This is equivalent to Draw No Bet Away
– Away win edge: -7.85% (NEGATIVE)
– BLOCKED
### 10-20. All Other Markets
– Second Half markets: SH Over 1.5 PERMANENTLY BANNED
– Over 3.5/4.5: PERMANENTLY BANNED
– Away Win: PERMANENTLY BANNED
– All remaining markets either have odds < 1.75 or negative edges
## Final Selection
Draw No Bet Home is the ONLY valid market:
- Edge Score: 7 (STRONG)
- Value Edge: 14.78% (EXCEPTIONAL)
- Odds: 2.1 (optimal range)
- Tier B league: allowed
- 3/4 filters confirmed: ✓ Edge ✓ Odds ✓ Defense comparison (home 65% vs 35%)
- Missing: Poisson slightly favors away (53% vs 47%)
Confidence Gate:
- Edge Score 7 >= 5 ✓
– Value edge 14.78% >= 3% ✓
– Odds 2.1 >= 1.75 ✓
– League Tier B ✓
– 3/4 strong filters confirmed ✓
**CONFIDENCE: HIGH**
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