# PRE-ANALYSIS GATE — INTERNAL REASONING
## LEAGUE TIER CHECK
K League 1 (id=292) → TIER B (demoted from Tier A in v6 | CLV: -62%, high variance)
– Full HIGH confidence allowed
– +1 Edge Score bonus applies
– Edge threshold: >= 4% acceptable, >= 7% strong
## PRIORITY MARKET EVALUATION
Priority: “Over 2.5 Goals”
Over 2.5 Hard Filters Check:
1. BOTH teams goals_for_avg >= 2.0? Home: 1.2, Away: 1.4 → FAIL
2. value_edge >= 12%? edge_calculator.over_25 = -0.0592 (negative) → FAIL
3. edge_calculator.over_25 >= 0.08? -0.0592 → FAIL
4. odds >= 1.75? 2.1 → PASS
5. NEITHER H2H Under >= 3/5 NOR Poisson over_25 < 40%? H2H Under = 3/5 → FAIL
Priority market FAILS multiple hard filters. Proceeding to full market scan.
## EDGE CALCULATOR PRE-SKIP CHECK
- under_25 = -0.0052 (< 0.05) → Under 2.5 evaluation NOT mandatory
- over_25 = -0.0592 (< 0.08) → Over 2.5 evaluation NOT mandatory
- btts = -0.0704 (< 0.05) → BTTS evaluation NOT mandatory
- best_market = "away_win" with edge 0.0845
Away Win is PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN (CLV: -9.02%, n=42). Ignoring best_market hint.
## FULL MARKET SCAN
### 1. HOME WIN
- Odds: 2.15 → PASS (>= 1.75)
– edge_calculator.home_win = -0.1411 (negative) → FAIL value edge
– Poisson home_win check: “Home 43% vs Away 57%” → home_win implied ~43% < 60% → FAIL hard filter
- Market REJECTED
### 2. DRAW
- League: K League 1 (292) → on whitelist ✓
- Odds: 3.1 → PASS (>= 2.80)
– H2H draws: 2/5 (2024-09-22, 2024-05-29) → PASS activation filter 1
– Mid-table check: Home #4, Away #7 → both mid-table, no pressure → PASS activation filter 2
– All 3 activation filters confirmed
– Implied probability: 1/3.1 = 32.26%
– Estimated probability: API 45% (unreliable), Poisson neutral, H2H 40% → estimate 38%
– Value edge: 38% – 32.26% = 5.74% → PASS (>= 3%)
Draw Edge Score:
+2 H2H draws = 2/5
+2 Both teams drew recent: Home 2/5 (DLDLW), Away 0/5 (WLLWL) → only home qualifies → +1
+1 Odds 2.90-3.30 sweet spot (3.1) ✓
+1 K League 1 fixture ✓
-2 Away won 2/5 last 5 (minor penalty)
= 5 points → MEDIUM tier
Draw confidence gate:
– Edge Score = 5 (>= 4) ✓
– All 3 activation filters confirmed ✓
– Odds >= 2.70 ✓
– Value edge 5.74% >= 3% ✓
→ HIGH confidence path unlocked
Checking FINAL CONFIDENCE GATE for HIGH:
1. 3/4 strong filters? H2H ✓, Odds ✓, Stats ✓, Attack gap neutral → 3/4 ✓
2. Edge Score >= 5? 5 → ✓
3. Value edge >= 3%? 5.74% → ✓
4. Odds >= 1.75? 3.1 → ✓
5. League TIER B? ✓
**Draw qualifies for HIGH confidence**
### 3. AWAY WIN
PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN — skip
### 4. OVER 2.5 GOALS
Already evaluated in priority — REJECTED (multiple hard filter failures)
### 5. UNDER 2.5 GOALS
– edge_calculator.under_25 = -0.0052 (< 0.05) → FORBIDDEN by activation rule
- Market REJECTED
### 6. BTTS YES
- edge_calculator.btts = -0.0704 (negative) → FAIL value edge
- Market REJECTED
### 7. BTTS NO
- League: K League 1 → NOT on whitelist (Argentina, Copa Lib, Conference, Serie A, Primeira) → FORBIDDEN
- Market REJECTED
### 8-20. REMAINING MARKETS
- Home Over 1.5: edge -0.1434 → negative
- Away Over 1.5: edge +0.0473, odds 3.25 → value edge 4.73%, but odds > 2.50 hard filter → REJECTED
– Asian Handicap -0.5: edge -0.1305 → negative
– All other markets: either negative edge, odds < 1.75, or forbidden by hard filters
## SCAN COMPLETE
Only Draw passes all hard filters with positive value edge and valid odds.