# PRE-ANALYSIS GATE (INTERNAL REASONING)
## Input Analysis
– League: K League 1 (id=292) — **TIER B** (demoted from Tier A in v6, CLV: -62%)
– Odds available: YES
– edge_calculator: present with best_market = “draw_no_bet_home” (edge 0.198)
– priority_market: “Over 2.5 Goals” — must evaluate FIRST
## Priority Market Check: Over 2.5 Goals
**HARD FILTERS:**
1. BOTH teams goals_for_avg >= 2.0? Home 1.3, Away 1.0 — **FAIL**
2. value_edge >= 12%? edge_calculator.over_25 = -0.0667 — **FAIL (NEGATIVE)**
3. edge_calculator.over_25 >= 0.08? -0.0667 — **FAIL**
4. odds >= 1.75? 2.4 — PASS
5. Neither H2H Under >= 3/5 NOR Poisson over_25 < 40%? H2H Under = 3/5 — **FAIL**
**RESULT:** Over 2.5 Goals BLOCKED by multiple hard filters (negative edge, both teams low scoring, H2H contradicts). Priority market FAILS.
## Mandatory Full Market Scan
### Pre-Skip Check (edge_calculator):
- under_25 = -0.0036 (< 0.05) → Under 2.5 NOT mandatory
- over_25 = -0.0667 (< 0.08) → Over 2.5 NOT mandatory
- btts = -0.081 (< 0.05) → BTTS NOT mandatory
No mandatory markets triggered → skip is ALLOWED if all markets fail.
### Market Evaluation Order:
**1. Home Win (odds 3.5)**
- FORBIDDEN: odds > 2.50 (max allowed 2.50)
– SKIP
**2. Asian Handicap -0.5 (odds 3.45)**
– FORBIDDEN: odds > 2.50 (max allowed 2.50)
– SKIP
**3. Draw No Bet Home (odds 2.5)**
– edge_calculator.draw_no_bet_home = 0.198 (19.8% edge!) — **STRONG VALUE**
– Poisson home_win from goal probabilities: home 0.95, away 1.15 → Poisson favors away
– poisson_probabilities shows Home 31% vs Away 69% — home_win < 0.60 — **FAIL RESULT BET FILTER**
- European fatigue: none reported
- Home team form: WDDLL (poor recent form)
- BLOCK: Poisson home_win < 0.60 threshold
**4. Away Win (odds 2.1)**
- **PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN** — Away Win banned (CLV: -9.02%)
- SKIP
**5. Asian Handicap +0.5 (odds 2.1)**
- Away Win substitute (Draw No Bet Away equivalent)
- edge_calculator shows best_market = "draw_no_bet_home" NOT away
- Away team favored (Poisson 69%, bookmaker 47.6%)
- value_edge would be negative (bookmaker already prices away at 47.6%)
- SKIP (low value)
**6. Under 2.5 Goals (odds 1.53)**
- edge_calculator.under_25 = -0.0036 (NEGATIVE edge)
- FORBIDDEN: edge < 0.05 threshold
- SKIP
**7. BTTS Yes (odds 2.0)**
- edge_calculator.btts = -0.081 (NEGATIVE edge)
- HARD FILTERS: away failed_to_score = 4 (>= 3) — **FAIL**
– H2H BTTS = 1/5 — very low
– SKIP
**8. BTTS No (odds 1.73)**
– K League 1 NOT on whitelist (Argentina, Copa Lib, Conference, Serie A, Primeira)
– **PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN** in K League 1
– SKIP
**9. Away Over 1.5 Goals (odds 2.5)**
– away goals_for_avg = 1.0 (< 1.9 required) — **FAIL**
- odds = 2.5 (meets 2.00+ threshold) — PASS
- edge_calculator.away_over_15 = -0.081 (NEGATIVE) — **FAIL**
- SKIP
**10. Away Over 2.5 Goals (odds 6)**
- FORBIDDEN: odds > 2.50
– SKIP
**11. Home Over 1.5 Goals (odds 3.75)**
– FORBIDDEN: odds > 2.50
– SKIP
**12. Draw (odds 3.1)**
– K League 1 (id=292) IS on Draw whitelist
– Odds 3.1 (< 3.50 max for Draw) — PASS
- H2H draws: 3/5 — **STRONG SIGNAL**
- Both teams mid-table: Home #8, Away #2 (away has European pressure as rank 2)
- Minimum odds 2.80 — PASS
**DRAW EDGE SCORING:**
- Base: +3 (statistical alignment from H2H)
- +2 H2H draws >= 3/5
– +2 Both teams drew in last 5? Home: 2/5, Away: 1/5 — only +1 (not both >= 2)
– +1 Odds 2.90-3.30 (sweet spot) — 3.1 qualifies
– -2 Away team won 3+ of last 5 (WWWWL = 4 wins) — **PENALTY**
– -2 Win probability gap > 25%? Bookmaker: 47.6% – 28.6% = 19% — PASS (no penalty)
**Total Edge Score: 3+2+1+1-2 = 5**
**DRAW CONFIDENCE GATE:**
– Edge Score 5 (>= 4) — PASS
– All 3 activation filters? H2H yes, odds yes, mid-table BUT away #2 has pressure — 2/3 only
– Odds >= 2.70 — PASS
**Result:** MEDIUM confidence possible (Edge Score 2-3 range would be MEDIUM, 5 is higher but missing full activation = MEDIUM)
**VALUE EDGE CHECK:**
– Implied probability: 1/3.1 = 32.3%
– H2H draws 3/5 = 60% historical frequency
– API prediction: Draw 50%
– Estimated probability: ~45% (weighted average, H2H heavy weight)
– Value edge: 45% – 32.3% = **12.7%** — STRONG VALUE
**FINAL DRAW EVALUATION:**
– League: K League 1 (TIER B) — edge >= 4% required — 12.7% PASS
– Odds: 3.1 (within 2.80-3.50 range) — PASS
– Edge Score: 5 — PASS
– Value Edge: 12.7% — PASS
– Confidence: MEDIUM (activation filters 2/3, away pressure exists)
**13-20. Remaining Markets:**
– Over 1.5 (1.44) — odds < 1.75 FORBIDDEN
- Under 1.5 (2.62) — no edge signal
- Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 — Over 3.5 PERMANENTLY BANNED
- Second Half markets — SH Over 1.5 PERMANENTLY BANNED, others low odds
- First Half markets — odds "N/A"
## FINAL DECISION
**Best Market: Draw**
- Tier: SILVER (TIER B league, strong H2H signal, 12.7% value edge)
- Confidence: MEDIUM (Edge Score 5, activation 2/3, away form strong)
- Odds: 3.1
- Value Edge: 12.7%
All other markets either forbidden by hard filters, negative edge, or odds violations.