# PRE-ANALYSIS GATE — INTERNAL REASONING
## LEAGUE CONTEXT
– League: Brasileirao Serie A (id=71)
– TIER B league (demoted from Tier A in v6 — CLV: -58%, away goals_for avg 1.0)
– Full HIGH allowed in Tier B
– Edge Score bonus: +1
## WORLD CUP MODE CHECK
– wc_mode: false → standard rules apply
## PRIORITY MARKET EVALUATION
Priority: “Over 2.5 Goals”
OVER 2.5 HARD FILTERS (v6 strict):
1. BOTH teams goals_for_avg >= 2.0 seasonal → Home 2.2 ✓, Away 0.6 ✗ FAIL
2. value_edge >= 12% → edge_calculator.over_25 = -0.0202 (NEGATIVE) ✗ FAIL
3. edge_calculator.over_25 >= 0.08 → -0.0202 ✗ FAIL
4. odds >= 1.75 → 2.1 ✓
5. NEITHER H2H Under >= 3/5 NOR Poisson over_25 < 40% → H2H Under 1/3 ✓
**Priority market FAILS** — away goals_for 0.6 far below 2.0, negative edge. Mandatory full scan required.
## MANDATORY PRE-SKIP CHECK
edge_calculator values:
- under_25 = -0.0442 (negative, below 0.05 threshold) → Under 2.5 NOT mandatory
- over_25 = -0.0202 (negative, below 0.08 threshold) → Over 2.5 NOT mandatory
- btts = -0.0768 (negative, below 0.05 threshold) → BTTS NOT mandatory
No mandatory evaluations triggered. Skip is allowed if all markets fail.
## FULL MARKET SCAN
### 1. HOME WIN
- Odds: 1.95 ✓ (>= 1.75)
– edge_calculator.home_win = 0.1002 (10.02% edge) ✓✓
– Poisson home_win: 63% (given as Poisson Distribution) ✓ (>= 0.60)
– No European fatigue mentioned ✓
– Home goals_for 2.2, away goals_conceded 1.3 → strong home advantage
– Last5: Home 0.8 goals (weak form), Away 1.8 goals (strong form) → form contradicts
**Edge Score Calculation:**
+3 Strong statistical alignment (Poisson 63%, edge 10%)
+2 Odds in optimal range (1.95)
+1 No major data conflict
+1 Tier B league bonus
+1 Home Win selected bonus (CLV: +7.2%)
-1 Last5 contradicts (home form weak)
-1 Key striker Nathan Fogaca missing
= **6/10 STRONG**
**Value Edge:** 10.02% ✓✓
**Confidence Gate:** 3/4 filters confirmed, Edge Score 6, value edge 10.02%, odds 1.95, Tier B
→ **HIGH CONFIDENCE ACHIEVED**
### 2. ASIAN HANDICAP -0.5
– Odds: 1.98 ✓
– edge_calculator.asian_home_minus05 = 0.1079 (10.79% edge) ✓✓
– Same fundamentals as Home Win but slightly better edge
→ Valid alternative but Home Win simpler
### 3. DRAW NO BET HOME
– Odds: 1.4 ✗ (< 1.75) → FORBIDDEN by odds maximum
- edge_calculator.draw_no_bet_home = 0.1297 (best edge in system)
→ Cannot use due to odds < 1.75
### 4. UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- Odds: 1.7 ✗ (< 1.90 required for Under markets)
- edge_calculator.under_25 = -0.0442 (negative) ✗
→ FORBIDDEN — negative edge AND odds below threshold
### 5. BTTS YES
- Odds: 1.95 ✓
- edge_calculator.btts = -0.0768 (negative edge) ✗
- Away failed_to_score 4 of last 5 ✗
- Away seasonal goals_for 0.6 ✗ (< 1.4 minimum)
→ FORBIDDEN — fails hard filter (away goals_for < 1.4)
### 6. BTTS NO
- Odds: 1.8 ✓
- League: Brasileirao Serie A — NOT on BTTS No whitelist ✗
→ FORBIDDEN — league not whitelisted for BTTS No
### 7. OVER 2.5 GOALS
Already evaluated as priority — FAILS
### 8. HOME OVER 1.5 GOALS
- Odds: 2.1 ✓
- edge_calculator.home_over_15 = 0.0458 (4.58% edge) ✓
- Home goals_for_avg 2.2 ✓ (>= 1.8)
– Away goals_against_avg 1.3 ✗ (< 1.5)
- Edge Score requirement >= 6
– Last5 home goals 0.8 (weak recent form)
→ MARGINAL — away defense not weak enough, recent form poor
### 9. AWAY OVER 1.5 GOALS
– Odds: 3.75 ✓
– edge_calculator.away_over_15 = -0.0937 (negative) ✗
– Away goals_for 0.6 ✗ (< 1.9 v6 threshold)
→ FORBIDDEN
### 10. CLEAN SHEET HOME
- League: Brasileirao Serie A — NOT on CS Home whitelist ✗
→ FORBIDDEN
### 11. DRAW
- League: Brasileirao Serie A (id=71) — on whitelist ✓
- Odds: 3.4 ✓ (>= 2.80)
– H2H draws: 0/3 ✗
– edge_calculator shows negative edge for draw (implied in away_win/home_win edges)
→ Activation filters NOT met
### 12-20. Remaining markets
– Away Win: PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN
– Over 3.5/4.5: PERMANENTLY FORBIDDEN
– Second Half markets: No Pinnacle coverage, FORBIDDEN
– First Half markets: scoring_minutes available but FH specific odds N/A
– Under 3.5: odds 1.25 (< 1.75) ✗
- Home Over 2.5: odds 4.5, edge negative likely
- Away Over 2.5: odds 11, absurd
## FINAL DECISION
**HOME WIN** is the only market passing all hard filters with HIGH confidence.
- 10.02% value edge (well above 3% threshold)
- Edge Score 6/10 (strong)
- Poisson 63% vs implied 51.3% → clear value
- Tier B league with CLV bonus
- Odds 1.95 in optimal range
Output tip JSON for Home Win.